Over the past week, a bearish sentiment has persisted in the Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) cotton futures market. Market data shows that the price of the ICE cotton main contract (March 2026 contract) has declined continuously from last week's high near 63.17 cents per pound, closing at 62.31 cents per pound as of February 3, with a cumulative weekly drop of approximately 0.87 cents. After opening on February 4, the price continued to fluctuate near the yearly low of 62.30 cents per pound, with overall cautious sentiment prevailing in market trading.

Analysis widely attributes this decline to a combination of macroeconomic and fundamental pressures. Firstly, a strengthening U.S. Dollar Index provided direct downward pressure, weakening the international purchasing power of dollar-denominated cotton. Simultaneously, the recent widespread sell-off in global commodity markets has heightened risk-averse sentiment, leading to capital outflows from commodities, making it difficult for cotton to remain unaffected.

At the industry level, unfavorable factors are also evident. On one hand, the recent retreat in international crude oil prices has reduced the production costs of polyester fiber—cotton's main substitute—indirectly weakening cotton's price competitiveness among textile raw materials. On the other hand, persistent concerns about end-consumer demand remain. Although the latest U.S. Manufacturing PMI data showed recovery in the apparel sector, the contraction in the global textile mill segment reflects continued weakness in upstream raw material demand, leaving cotton consumption without a strong growth engine.

Currently, the market is awaiting the upcoming U.S. Prospective Plantings report for cotton, expected later this month, which will provide crucial guidance for the new crop year's global supply outlook. Prior to that, analysts predict that in the absence of significant new bullish catalysts, the upside potential for cotton prices will be limited. It is highly probable that prices will maintain a consolidative pattern within the 62 to 63 cents per pound range in the short term.