Macro impact and home textile performance from the Dieshiqiao Index
The Dieshiqiao Index is China's first home textile product index, initiated by the Ministry of Commerce, the Information Department of the China National Textile and Apparel Council, the State Information Center, and other authorities. Based on the Dieshiqiao home textile industrial cluster and market sample data collection, it comprehensively and objectively reflects industrial development trends, serving as a bellwether for the global home textile market and a barometer for global home textile trade.
The Dieshiqiao Index mainly consists of the Price Index and the Climate Index. The Price Index covers the small set price index, large set price index, quilt cover price index, blanket price index, and winter quilt core price index, and is released weekly. The Climate Index includes the production climate index and market climate index, reflecting the overall conditions of production and trading, and is released monthly. The index is published through the Ministry of Commerce's "Commerce Forecast" platform. We mainly tracks the climate index and the purchasing managers' index. The performance of the Dieshiqiao Home Textile Index in recent years is reviewed.
Based on the average Climate Index from 2019 to the present, the index has trended lower with fluctuations, consistent with on-the-ground operating conditions faced by manufacturers. After repeated shocks, the home textile sector-a traditional industry-faces significant downward pressure on overall business sentiment. The macro backdrop and industry performance are summarized as follows:
| Year | GDP (trillion RMB) | GDP Growth | Macro Background | Home Textile Industry |
| 2018 | 90.03 | 6.6% | Deleveraging; US-China trade war began; PPI high early, low later | Profit surged; rush for exports; last year of full-scale growth |
| 2019 | 98.65 | 6.0% | Intensified trade frictions | Stable development; domestic sales outperformed exports |
| 2020 | 101.36 | 2.2% | COVID-19 impact; only major economy with positive growth; order backflow | Benefited from order relocation; home textiles rebounded rapidly |
| 2021 | 114.92 | 8.4% | Sharp rise in PPI; strong export boom; power rationing & production curbs | Output up but profits flat; costs eroded margins |
| 2022 | 120.47 | 3.0% | Recurring COVID outbreaks; high inflation in Europe & US; export order bonus faded | External demand retreated; post-pandemic consumption shift cooled home textiles |
| 2023 | 126.06 | 5.2% | Post-COVID normal recovery | Weak recovery with insufficient momentum |
| 2024 | 134.81 | 5.0% | Policy support for stable growth | Weak domestic demand; home textiles under pressure |
| 2025 | 140.19 | 5.0% | Deep property adjustment; tariff impacts; strong supply, weak demand | Overall pressure; deep structural divergence |
Monthly readings show the Climate Index has fluctuated higher, with stronger performance in the second half than the first half. However, dragged by external headwinds and weak domestic demand, the traditional "Golden September, Silver October" peak season is no longer a reliable rule. This loss of typical seasonality is also evident in the Purchasing Managers' Index shown in the chart below. In recent years, peak and off-peak periods have gradually blurred, and the absence of a strong peak season has become the new normal. Notably, the export share of chemical fiber home textile products has expanded steadily, accounting for about 70% of total export value, while the share of cotton home textiles has narrowed.
From 2019 to 2025, the annual average PMI for home textiles surged and then retreated, hitting a bottom in 2024 before rebounding modestly. A partial recovery was seen in 2025, though the index remained at a relatively low level.
For 2026, the first year of the 15th Five-Year Plan period, mainstream institutions forecast China's GDP growth at 4.5%–5.0%, with a median projection of around 4.8%. The market widely expects the economy to maintain a steady and improving trend. The home textile market is expected to continue expanding amid policy support, but with noticeable structural divergence. Bedding: leading companies are expected to perform well, with tech-driven key products helping drive replacement demand and higher profit margins. Curtains and upholstery: highly dependent on the property sector, this segment is likely to remain weak. Towels: lacking clear positive or negative drivers, the market is expected to stay range-bound.
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